Post-mortem on Calvinism in the USA

The conservative side of Presbyterianism – the English and Scottish branch of Calvinism – is about to go through a repeat of the early 20th century “Fundamentalist/Modernist” Controversy in miniature, this time over sexual identity and cultural Marxism. The PCA church will split into

We need to ask ourselves why this keeps happening – why a liberal, God-hating minority keeps capturing conservative churches, evangelizing, and destroying them and why liberals keep winning. This has been going on for almost 200 years in the West and 100 years in the United States. Deuteronomy 32:30 provides a clue: “How could one have chased a thousand, and two have put ten thousand to flight, unless their Rock had sold them,  and the Lord had given them up?” The conservatives never seem to change strategy. They always pass resolutions in hopes that the liberals will give up theirs but never kick the liberals out because they have no stomach for a fight. This time, they’re going to be beaten by a twink like Greg Johnson who is not even really a man. What do you call people, like conservatives, who consistently lose? LOSERS. Why do we lose? We don’t have a stomach for fighting. Why don’t we have a stomach? There are probably many reasons why Deut 32:30 is true of conservatives and we need to repent of all of them. We need widespread repentance of many, many things: our lack of hospitality, our lack of love, our failure to bring our children up in the training and admonishment of the LORD, our complacency, our compromise, our cowardice, our lack of interest in sound doctrine. Our need for repentance is so great and deep that we don’t know all that we need to repent of.

The laity can’t have both cultural collapse and religious collapse (is there, maybe, a connection) at the same time. The elders need to gather together, pray, and repent. Then maybe they’ll be ready to lead us. If this doesn’t happen soon, all the laity will flee to their own tents (2 Chronicles 25:22). We’re not going to follow leaders who can’t find a way to win much longer.

Played again

The news is generally fake news, even with COVID. Tired of getting played by the Left? Me too.

When you hear something is based on a model, find out who did the model, what assumptions went into it, and can you see the code. Ask more questions. If you’re denied any of the above facts, you can generally assume the creator of the model can’t defend it.

Remember that all models are wrong, some models are useful. “All models are wrong” means they all have boundary conditions, many of which are unknown until it’s too late.

New paper by John PA Ioannidis on COVID 19

I’m posting this as I listen to a bunch of 30-something gals lament the prospective 2-month lockdown and anxiety over cough symptoms. Don’t tell me the panic has no effect. Real evidence-based researchers and experts have been trying to debunk the outrageous claims by other “experts” who are so often wrong but never discredited. TOwards that end, John PA Ioannidis has published a new paper in an effort to calm the panic:

Early reported CFR figures also seem exaggerated. The most widely quoted CFR has been 3.4%, reported by WHO dividing the number of deaths by documented cases in early March.7 This ignores undetected infections and the strong age-dependence of CFR. The most complete data come from Diamond Princess passengers, with CFR=1% observed in an elderly cohort; thus, CFR may be much lower than 1% in the general population; probably higher than seasonal flu (CFR=0.1%), but not much so. Observed crude CFR in South Korea and in Germany8 , the countries with most extensive testing, is 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively as of March 14 and crude CFR in Scandinavian countries is about 0.1%. Some deaths of infected, seriously ill people will occur later, and these deaths have not been counted yet. However even in these countries many infections probably remain undiagnosed. Therefore, CFR may be even lower rather than higher than these crude estimates


If COVID-19 is not as grave as it is depicted, high evidence standards are equally relevant. Exaggeration and over-reaction may seriously damage the reputation of science, public health, media, and policy makers. It may foster disbelief that will jeopardize the prospects of an appropriately strong response if and when a more major pandemic strikes in the future

After this epidemic fails to result in the death rates and calamity predicted, bureaucracies and kook researchers will say that the extreme measures they recommended worked. It will be a decade of post-hoc; ergo propter hoc.

This is great for bureaucracies and the Left. Anyone going along with the panic is squandering their credibility.

Time for a sanity check

WM Briggs provides one. Don’t worry, he’s not a lone “unqualified” statistician like the “experts” – he provides plenty of evidence from other experts that COVID has been massively overblown. Experts don’t always agree. Experts make mistakes. Over time, one would hope that the experts who are wrong would be weeded-out of the system, but they’re not. They seem, rather, to profit. Huh (?)

The comments, of course, are a goldmine:

“British scientist Neil Ferguson ignited the world’s drastic response to the novel Wuhan coronavirus when he published the bombshell report predicting 2.2 million Americans and more than half a million Brits would be killed. After both the U.S. and U.K. governments effectively shut down their citizens and economies, Ferguson is walking back his doomsday scenarios.”

Oops!That whole “flatten the curve” thing. You know, so the hospitals won’t be “overwhelmed.” Yeah, forget it. I misplaced a couple decimal places in my “models.” It’s not 20 “million” dead, it’s 20 “thousand.” You can open up the economy again. Thanks!

Ferguson is now retracting his modeling, saying he feels “reasonably confident” our health care system can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in a few weeks. Testifying before the U.K.’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology on Wednesday, Ferguson said he now predicts U.K. deaths from the disease will not exceed 20,000, and could be much lower.”“The Imperial College report was also the basis for the modeling used by the website COVID Act Now, which local and state officials in the U.S. then used to issue “shelter-in-place” mandates. COVID Act Now, which was founded by a handful of Democratic activists in Silicon Valley, is an online mapping tool that generates models predicting coronavirus hospitalizations, which have also already proved to be wildly inaccurate.”

Never mind….!

So Silicon Valley played us again with a bunk model from some kook Brits. Who benefits?

Calm Down

I’m not sure if anyone reads this blog so I’m probably pissing into the wind. Also, debunking falsehoods usually just makes people cling to them even harder. This COVID “pandemic” is the biggest mass hysteria I’ve seen in my life. We’re on track to lose fewer people worldwide than the 2017/2018 flu season by a long shot (probably half). The social distancing and other mitigation efforts have been effective, but at what cost? An economic crisis. This will be the next thing the media whips us into a panic over in a 6-hour news cycle.

The truly terrifying thing is that none of us can think anymore. We’re being given over to unstable minds. When a real crisis hits, we’ll be unable to deal with it.

Calm down. Seriously.

Drop your tools

I’ve been reading David Epstein’s book “Range” subtitled how generalists succeed in today’s world. The book is a little bit of a misnomer because it’s about much more than being a generalist. It also shows you how to overcome your cognitive biases and abandon methods that aren’t working.

In one part of the book, Epstein explores the cognitive biases that cause hot shots and other forest firefighters to get killed when fires race uphill after them. In these situations, firefighters are trained to drop all their tools so they can outrun the fire to the nearest ridgeline and escape. Unfortunately, despite training, many fail to do so. Instead, they continue running with their tools and, consequently, the fire outruns them. In some studies, firefighters were found burned to death only 50 feet from safety showing that they only needed a little bit more speed and they were so close to surviving rather than dying had they only dropped their tools.

Why did they ignore their training? Their tools were essential to their identity. If they didn’t have their tools, they’d no longer be firefighters and that was too psychologically difficult to accept, so they made the unconscious decision to die with their identity intact. Once you notice this cognitive bias or error, you see it everywhere. For example, farm murders in South Africa. White farmers know the ANC is eventually going to send thugs to murder them and these thugs will in almost every case be helped by a black farmhand. Rather than fire all their farm hands and come up with an adequate defense plan, most farmers cling to their identities as nice people who provide an essential service for others. They can’t understand why anyone – such as ANC Marxists – would identify them as the remnants of invaders from the 1600s who unjustly stole the land when that happened 400 years ago. Thus, they die.

Another example is farmers in the United States who commit suicide at an alarming rate due to inability to provide for themselves as farmers under crushing debt loads and prices fixed by the federal government and commodities traders. Rather than abandon farming or try market gardening or some other small-scale method that yields higher profits in local markets, they keep doing what they’ve always done in the way they know how. When the bank takes their livelihood, they eat a gun.

How about men in the United States? Our identity as men is based on our ability to provide, protect, and procreate. The Second Amendment is obviously a means of protecting one’s wife and children. The Left relentlessly attacks this amendment (as well as all the others) and men keep using ineffective tactics in response such as donating to the NRA, electing Republicans, or protesting. Their tools, in other words, are killing them. Men need to drop their tools and pick up others. We’re going to have to get more-involved in politics as unpleasant as that sounds. The Left has achieved everything they’ve wanted despite starting out as a despised minority through politics, not violence. Now that they’re in power, they’re talking gulags and other harsh measures against adherents to the Bill of Rights. Long have we seen this coming and failed to change tactics while we’ve had almost no strategy. We’ve hoped things will just right themselves by electing Republicans despite all the proofs that Republicans don’t care about us.

The Left operates as a vast back-scratching network that sees the State as a means of salvation and a surrogate family. This leads them to engage in relentless culture wars with a religious fervor. The Bible calls this behavior “worshiping the Beast,” which basically means behaving as though the world and its system governed by the Devil are a means of salvation rather than Jesus its true King. This puts conservatives and traditionalists at an inherent disadvantage since we want to be left alone to handle things within our own families and communities, but this is also a strength as we inherently see local solutions and subsidiarity as better methods. Liberals used to believe this too, and to the extent that old-fashioned liberals still exist, they are our allies. Strategy, as John Boyd defines it, is the simple act of connecting to more centers of gravity and disconnecting your adversary from his.

Washington or your local liberal city are not your centers of gravity, but your neighbors and city, and county politicians and public officials may be. They can help you employ a Deplorable Strategy that will contain the madness from the cultural Marxists on the Left through nullification and civil disobedience, which are the same things they’ve been doing for decades whenever they think a law or our even our entire society are unjust. This will require you to drop your old tools and pick up new ones. Read the books of the Left and you’ll get some ideas. More on this later.

Transgenderism in children

The other day, I saw an article on NPR complaining that hormone blockers cost 8 times as much for children as they do for adults. Then I wondered who these sick parents are that are mutilating their own children. I wondered how they could even allow their children to try to be the opposite sex. Then I realized, modern parents allow their kids to do just about anything they want. They think it’s their job to be as permissive as possible to reach their full potential. This is basically the reason Dwayne Wade gave for helping his son transition to female:

We take our roles and responsibility as parents very seriously. So when our child comes home with a question, when our child comes home with an issue, when our child comes home with anything, it’s our job as parents to listen to that, to give them the best information we can, the best feedback we can. And that doesn’t change because sexuality is now involved in it….
That was our job, to go out and get information, to reach out to every relationship that we have. My wife reached out to everybody on the cast of ‘Pose,’” he said, referring to the FX drama series centered around LGBTQ characters. “We just tried to figure out as much information as we can to make sure that we give our child the best opportunity to be her best self.

There you have it. Their son will be who he wants to be as a girl. Rather than tell the kid it’s foolish to want to change what God has made him and dangerous to try, they actually encourage him to mutilate himself. I’ve seen this many times. There was a guy at work with a son who wanted to be transgender and the mother supported it fully. The father went along with it. I wanted to grab the father, shake him, and yell, “HE IS YOUR SON!” at him, but I didn’t. I’m stuck in this frustrating position of wanting to remind people that God made them male and female after his own image and you can’t change it and it’s foolish to try, but in so doing I’d question their entire parenting style. These ‘parents’ are “all in” with their permissiveness, and they’re not going to change now because changing would require deep introspection and admission that they’ve been doing it badly wrong. It would shatter their identity as parents. Better to help their children mutilate themselves and ruin their lives.

Secularism, Paganism, and the idea of a Christian Society

I’m reading <a href=” “>Pagans and Christians in the City</a> by Steven D. Smith tracing religious culture wars from Antiquity to today. Smith posits that the culture wars today have always lurked in the background and we’re seeing a resurgence of paganism after the decline of Christianity.

The Left sees the culture wars the inevitable march of Progress from religious superstition to atheistic rationalism. Of course, they’ve ended up in the ditch of scientific denialism with the gender and sex wars. Homosexuality is not race; sexual orientation is largely mutable and homosexuality is a major fitness hit. The Left is also saying you can be a different gender than the sex between your legs and on your chromosomes. I won’t get into the sexual revolution of the ’60s, Roe V. Wade of the ’70s, the Pill and the rest other than to say that the Left’s public morality is the outworking of their pagan religious beliefs.

On the Right, we seem to be dismayed at the Left’s Long March Through the Institutions. This, however, is just a Pyrrhic victory for the Left mainly because they do not have kids. As should be obvious, the only way the Left sustains itself is by co-opting other people’s children. This is why they’re so concerned with education/indoctrination. Secularization is not increasing. Based on the Left’s religious fanaticism, you can even argue it’s in full retreat.

The question then is not whether the world will be favorable to people of faith but whose faith will prevail. Some men argue that we should forget about “Christendom” altogether but this fails to acknowledge that a Christian society is an inevitable result of the difference in birthrates between Christians who do not practice infanticide and pagans who do. There is also endless friction in “pluralistic” societies that can only be resolved by everyone practicing the same blend of paganism that Roman subjects practiced (Mithraism, Greco-Roman diety worshp, etc) or by making the society monoreligious or by reconstituting classic liberalism as advocated by Locke and several of the Reformers. I don’t see the latter happening since classic liberalism was, to a large degree, a compromise reached between factions that were simply tired of fighting by the end of the 30 Years’ War.

My own view is that we need to lay the foundations for a new society built on the ruins of this one. The pagan religious fanatics, armed against their own wombs with the Pill and Abortion, are dying out. This will inevitably leave room for some form of Christendom barring the days of Noah where wickedness increases greatly and hardly any Christians are left, but we don’t know if that will happen in the near future. Wickedness seems to wax and wane throughout the centuries, but they still march on.

Speculation on the origins of NCoV

The Chinese are not our friends, part MMCM:

Given the above facts, either:
– A coronavirus spontaneously mutated and jumped to humans at a wet market or deep in some random bat cave which just so happened to be 20 miles from China’s only BSL-4 virology lab, a virus with an unusually slippery never-before-seen genome that’s evading zoological classification, and whose spike-protein region which allows it to enter host cells appears most like a bio-engineered commercial product, that somehow managed to infect its first three and roughly one-third of its initial victims despite them not being connected to this market, and then be so fined-tuned to humans that it’s gone on to create the single greatest public health crisis in Chinese history with approaching 100 million citizens locked-down or quarantined – also causing Mongolia to close its border with its largest trading partner for the first time in modern history.

– Or, Chinese scientists failed to follow correct sanitation protocols possibly while in a rush during their boisterous holiday season, something that had been anticipated since the opening of the BSL-4 lab and has happened at least four times previously, and accidentally released this bio-engineered Wuhan Strain – likely created by scientists researching immunotherapy regimes against bat coronaviruses, who’ve already demonstrated the ability to perform every step necessary to bio-engineer the Wuhan Strain 2019-nCov – into their population, and now the world. As would be expected, this virus appears to have been bio-engineered at the spike-protein genes which was already done at UNC to make an extraordinarily virulent coronavirus. Chinese efforts to stop the full story about what’s going on are because they want the scales to be even since they’re now facing a severe pandemic and depopulation event. No facts point against this conclusion.

At the above link, you can also find evidence that the preliminary research on this strain was done by a Chinese guy at UNC. Westerners have their heads very far in the sand about Chinese involvement in our science. University professors love Chinese students because they’ll work for nothing and do whatever they’re told. They’re not at all concerned that the research might be delivered to the Chinese Communist Party to be used against us. In fact, the Chinese Communist Party might be paying them to do it:

Details of Lieber’s alleged offences appear in a charging document submitted by the FBI in connection with his arrest. It says that for periods of time between 2012 and 2017, Lieber agreed to be paid a salary of $50,000 per month, as well as about $150,000 a year in personal and living expenses, by WUT, and was given more than $1.5 million to set up a research lab there. According to a contract cited in the document, Lieber was to work at or for WUT for at least nine months a year. Lieber also agreed to host visiting scientists for two-month stints at his US lab, according to the FBI, an agreement that Harvard was not aware of.

At the same time, Lieber continued his tenure at Harvard University and applied for funding from US agencies, receiving at least $15 million in federal grants from the Department of Defense (DOD) and the NIH since 2008. NIH policies require that researchers applying for federal funds disclose any funding they receive from other governments or universities outside the United States. Lieber was asked about his participation in the Thousand Talents Plan in April 2018 by DOD investigators, and by Harvard in late 2018 in response to an enquiry from the NIH. In both instances, the FBI says, he denied being part of it.
Talent programme

China’s Thousand Talents Plan has been one focus of the US government’s efforts to crack down on foreign interference in research. In November last year, a US Senate panel suggested that the programme could be a means by which the Chinese government diverts US intellectual property for the state’s own benefit. Michael Lauer, a deputy director at the NIH, told lawmakers that the contracts encouraged participants to set up ‘shadow labs’ in China that replicated their work at US institutions. In December, an elite science advisory group known as JASON recommended in a report that US agencies support fruitful international collaborations while strengthening policies that require scientists to be transparent about conflicts of interest.

There’s a bunch of Chinese mewling about discrimination which is what they’re trained to do in response to scrutiny by US authorities.

Our government doesn’t seem to care either. As long as a Chinese guy has “US citizenship,” he’ll be given a principle investigatorship on research vital to national security, such as 5G NTN. I’ve seen this countless times. US primes and government labs and test ranges are completely infiltrated.

All this has to stop, but what a Gordian knot it now is. Universities love Chinese students because they pay more than native students. Professors love them because they’re subservient. Professors love Chinese money and perks even more. US authorities rather-uncritically give anyone with a PhD and US citizenship access to research funding and information they probably shouldn’t have. All of this ends up in the hands of Chinese Communists who don’t have the ethics to use Western scientific tools and methods for good.

The time for reforms is now.