The news is generally fake news, even with COVID. Tired of getting played by the Left? Me too.
When you hear something is based on a model, find out who did the model, what assumptions went into it, and can you see the code. Ask more questions. If you’re denied any of the above facts, you can generally assume the creator of the model can’t defend it.
Remember that all models are wrong, some models are useful. “All models are wrong” means they all have boundary conditions, many of which are unknown until it’s too late.