I’m posting this as I listen to a bunch of 30-something gals lament the prospective 2-month lockdown and anxiety over cough symptoms. Don’t tell me the panic has no effect. Real evidence-based researchers and experts have been trying to debunk the outrageous claims by other “experts” who are so often wrong but never discredited. TOwards that end, John PA Ioannidis has published a new paper in an effort to calm the panic:
Early reported CFR figures also seem exaggerated. The most widely quoted CFR has been 3.4%, reported by WHO dividing the number of deaths by documented cases in early March.7 This ignores undetected infections and the strong age-dependence of CFR. The most complete data come from Diamond Princess passengers, with CFR=1% observed in an elderly cohort; thus, CFR may be much lower than 1% in the general population; probably higher than seasonal flu (CFR=0.1%), but not much so. Observed crude CFR in South Korea and in Germany8 , the countries with most extensive testing, is 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively as of March 14 and crude CFR in Scandinavian countries is about 0.1%. Some deaths of infected, seriously ill people will occur later, and these deaths have not been counted yet. However even in these countries many infections probably remain undiagnosed. Therefore, CFR may be even lower rather than higher than these crude estimates
If COVID-19 is not as grave as it is depicted, high evidence standards are equally relevant. Exaggeration and over-reaction may seriously damage the reputation of science, public health, media, and policy makers. It may foster disbelief that will jeopardize the prospects of an appropriately strong response if and when a more major pandemic strikes in the future
After this epidemic fails to result in the death rates and calamity predicted, bureaucracies and kook researchers will say that the extreme measures they recommended worked. It will be a decade of post-hoc; ergo propter hoc.
This is great for bureaucracies and the Left. Anyone going along with the panic is squandering their credibility.